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Residents of the Big Apple will learn the identity of their new city leader this election day, in a race that will decide who governs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a time when the former president has vowed to send armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democratic figures against each other. The contest has turned into an acrimonious face-off, marked by alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted international attention. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the support of wealthy contributors and big business.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

However, Cuomo, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has trashed his opponent's objectives as unrealistic, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Recently, the independent was widely condemned as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be critical to the direction that the party, struggling in its response to the former president's power moves, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to Americans' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of the candidate's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks perhaps not seen since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a surprising comeback win, it could cement the party's existing approach of considered, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A New York rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York appear to favor the progressive agenda. Polls show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has drawn an force of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate directly. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir recently, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to take similar action to NYC, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of wealthy residents, including some who donated to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent elected, as other powerful voices have pressured the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should not have reached to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, launched his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had heard of him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had married a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, stepped down from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was elected to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after video emerged suggesting him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a DSA gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his response to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Speaking to the behavior of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd