Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Each authors two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
